March is also the month when Nintendo plans to introduce its Wii Ware service, which could become even more appealing than the Virtual Console. Especially if it delivers Joy Sound Wii on time and keeps the karaoke songs flowing into Japan's living rooms. Although, if it's anything like the DS and cell phone versions, I'll probably get even more play out of the forthcoming Wii Ware version of Namco's Mojipittan...
Yakuza 3 is like Shenmue but with fewer sailors and more blood.
April: Metal Gear Solid 4 could be released in Japan in March (I've heard as much direct from a Konami rep), but April or even later (let's hope not) seems to be a more likely scenario. Whenever it hits, Sons of the Patriots will give the PS3 a massive boost in Japan and, from what I've played of it, I think it could easily become the PS3's first true killer app. It would be nice to have MGS4 before the cherry blossom blooms.
May: Initially scheduled for "Q1 2008," Dragon Quest IX on the DS will probably be the most successful traditional game of the year no matter when it arrives (and my money is on May/June). Japan will lap it up, and with a user base of more than 20 million DS owners there's every chance DQIX will be a record-breaker. It was a brave move to shift such a revered series to the DS, but in terms of risk against potential reward I think it's a shrewd decision.
And there my crystal ball loses some of its shine. Apart from being able to state that the Tokyo Game Show will take place in mid-October, there's very little in the way of concrete dates beyond the summer. We can expect Gran Turismo 5 to roll into view at some point before 2009, but Polyphony Digital will probably cut it close. Similarly, Resident Evil 5, Street Fighter IV, Final Fantasy XIII, Monster Hunter 3 and Tekken 6 could all arrive before the end of '08, but precisely when is anyone's guess. Even looking to the immediate future, though, with Smash Bros. and DMC4 just weeks away from their Japanese debuts, 2008 is shaping up very nicely indeed.
